Hdb price trends, will prices drop or rise in 2018 teoalida website

The 1997 Asian Crisis came when 80.000 flats were under construction, demand for new flats felt sharply. leaving HDB with about 40,000 unsold completed flats in the year 2000, mostly large flat types. 2003 SARS outbreak affected economy too, so 5 years were necessary to clear the stock of unsold flats. Queue selling system (Registration for Flat) was suspended in 2002, Build-To-Order was introduced to prevent oversupply, and Walk-In-Selection was used temporarily to clear the stock of unsold flats.

Old (mature) estates were not attractive, so HDB launched various upgrading programmes and Selective En-bloc Redevelopment Scheme to make them attractive again. Resale flat prices started rising in old estates (where most 3-room are located) in 2002, while in the new estates they continued to fall until 2006, Executive flats having biggest fall.

Price per sqm between small and large flat types equalized in 2005.

As the stock of unsold flats vanished, Walk-In Selection ended in 2007 and was replaced by Sale of Balance Flats that is only twice per year thus the battle is 6 people per each flat. BTO became main mode of flat supply. People who cannot wait 3-4 years construction time for BTO and fail at SBF, need to go in resale market. Resale prices started rising.

Singapore economy recovered in late 2000s but HDB failed to anticipate, it ramped up the BTO supply too late and too slow, they offered 5500 BTO flats in 2007, 7800 in 2008, 9000 in 2009 (global recession), 12000? 16000 in 2010, 22000 25000 in 2011, 25000 27000 in 2012, plus DBSS flats and Executive Condos. ( strikethrough numbers are initial numbers announced at beginning of year).

The cooling measures introduced since 2011 such as Minimum Occupation Period lengthen to 5 years for resale flats (does anyone know when 5-year MOP was introduced for new flats?) just made people angry. Stupid MOP cause less flats to enter resale market in the coming years, and the number of people not eligible for buying directly from HDB (for example PR and singles) is growing.

One of the cooling measures, 3 year waiting period for permanent residents to buy resale flats, introduced in August 2013, created fear that the housing market may crash. Resale flat prices dropped in 3rd quarter 2013, for the first time in 5 years. Such minor drop in prices may cause panic, many owners rush to sell their flats before prices fall more, leading to a chain reaction in price drop, OR if the panic may be just temporarily and prices will rise back next year. However, there are no signs to recover. Every quarter of 2014 added 1-2% drop in prices. No significant drop but still enough to make analysts ANGRY that HDB cooling measures were too powerful and requested to be lifted.

Stupidity: instead of providing an adequate supply of flats, they kept supply low during 2000s despite of population increase, low number of flats entered in resale market while the demand was rising, then during 2010s HDB artificially slowed down demand for resale flats with cooling measures, and when prices started to drop, instead of keeping supply high and lift the cooling measures, they announced to decrease supply of new BTO flats 24300 units in 2014 to 16900 units in 2015. Idiot decision! BTO launches do not affect resale prices directly so we expect to see prices dropping and further decrease of BTO supply in 2016, thus the 2008-2013 price bubble risk to happen again during 2020s!

New BTO flat prices won’t fall according resale price index, they were traditionally priced 20% cheaper than resale flat prices, but since 2011 they were “de-linked” and became 30-40% cheaper (even if we exclude grants for first timers) as the HDB anticipated price fall. Even if the prices fall 10% for 3 consecutive years, BTO flat owners will still have profit from selling their flats. This does not apply for DBSS flats which were overpriced at their launch in 2011-2012. Raised income ceiling from $10k to $12k in 2015 may allow HDB to push up BTO prices.